dim prospects

Despite a $5 million cash infusion from the DNC, despite all the national media attention, despite the charges of a Republican 'culture of corruption,' despite all the perceived voter unrest with incumbents everywhere, California Republicans still successfully defended the 50th Congressional seat last night with Brian Bilbray easily defeating the dishonest lightweight Francine Busby.

Bilbray went from just 15% support in the primary election two months ago to 49.5% last night -- no small achievement -- and he did it by appealing to the chief concern of people here in San Diego: illegal immigration, his signature issue.

If this race truly is the 'bellwether' race leading up to the midterm elections it might not necessarily bode all that well for Democrats. Maybe Pelosi, Reid and Dean might want to actually win something before they can claim Majority status. (Although you'd be excused for thinking that the Democrats already are in the Majority, at least in the Senate, the way they force the feckless Republicans to get a 60 vote 'supermajority' on every bill they attempt to pass)

Yes, California's 50th was the great white hope for Democrats. Now that it is in safe Republican hands, the rest of the political landscape ain't all that appealing for them. Out of the 24 open seats, 16 are in districts overwhelmingly carried by President Bush in '04. I think the Dems will struggle to pick up seats in AZ, IL, MN, CO, WI, and IA. Republicans actually have decent chances of picking up two additional House seats in Ohio, where Tom Strickland is running for Governor and Vermont, because Bernie Sanders is running for the Senate.

The Democrats need 15 seats to become the Majority in the House. No matter how fuzzy your math gets, it doesn't look good.

In the Senate, Dems need to pick up 6 seats, which is certainly possible -- the GOP did it in '02 -- but unlikely, since they continue to have no coherent message to appeal to independents and moderates.

The media has spun Busby's loss into a slow news day for Republicans, while it is anything but. The Republicans won the midterm elections were won yesterday. Game over.