Sunday, November 5

big mo?

That 14 point generic ballot advantage Gallup said the Democrats had a couple of weeks ago is now down to 8, which tells me that the 14 number was always wrong. Pew Research Center's 11 point advantage is now down to 3.

These polls oversample Democrats and undersample Republicans to get a desired result. (And Liberals are home to answer the phone more on the weekends. The Conservatives are out, having a good time, while the Libs sit at home and stew. Priceless.)

Sounds like some big momentum out there brewing for the GOP, which is plenty predictable given that for all their bluster, the Left still doesn't have a counter-terrorism plan, or an Iraq plan, and the stakes are just far too high to trust America's national security to the liars Pelosi, Dean, Reid, Kerry and Clinton.

Additionally, early voting and absentee voting results are showing that Republicans are voting in larger numbers than they did in '04. I think the turnout is going to be more reflective of a Presidential year than a midterm election year.

I think the close races will mostly go our way, in both the House and the Senate and, in the end, we'll maintain control over both, because we've got more money, our GOTV effort is always better and our voters aren't flakes.

2 Comments:

Blogger Lisa said...

Liberals are natural pessimists. They always think that the sky is falling and will always be surprised when good things happen to them. It must be so depressing to be in a political party headed by Dean, Pelosi, Reid, and John Kerry. I would worry about the future of my party also if those misguided fools were running it.

I love your optimism. I can also see a scenario where Republicans keep control, but I think it will be a close call down to the wire. Nothing is guaranteed for either party. Polls are what they are. Everyone must vote. (Especially people who will vote for deserving Republicans...)

10:19 PM  
Blogger Earth Rooster said...

We have had this discussion before. I don't know why you place so much emphasis on the polls, when you and I both know that the polls are biased one way or the other.
As Lisa said, people have to get out and vote. This is going to be a tight ballot and Republicans need to be at polls this year to keep the Senate and the House. If not, look for some things to start happening.

3:50 AM  

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