horse race
The polls are all over the place, with Obama up anywhere from +2 to +10. The WSJ:"What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. (The LA Times-Bloomberg poll, for example) That's just not America, period," says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn't change "day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period.You'll see more tightening as we get closer because the polling organizations, regardless of ideology, want to be the one firm that gets it right.
"Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit that formula."
posted by Kent at 2:43 PM
2 Comments:
Gotta love the discrepancy between these polls. The newspapers all favor Obama heavily, but the actual polling agencies put it much closer. If they sampled 50/50, I think we'd probably see almost a perfect dead heat, but Heaven forbid they use 39% GOPers and 37% Dems. Actually, I think a 50/50 operation could, in some states, show McCain with the lead, thanks to the disaffected Clintonistas out there in the nation (and yes, they exist - this isn't some kind of fiction, just look at all the PUMA and NoBama websites out there).
Reliable pollsters weigh the respondents against the current party affiliations.
So if America is comprised of 39% Democrats and 34% Republicans, then the accurate polling sample should be 39%-34%.
What we find all too regularly is a poll with 44% being Democrats and black Democrats at that. That's what a recent Washington Post poll did, along with 28% Republicans. Totally bogus.
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