The polls are all over the place, with Obama up anywhere from +2 to +10. The WSJ:
"What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. (The LA Times-Bloomberg poll, for example) That's just not America, period," says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn't change "day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period.You'll see more tightening as we get closer because the polling organizations, regardless of ideology, want to be the one firm that gets it right.
"Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit that formula."